Quarter of exporters to EU considering holding back activity, research finds

Although 44% of UK exporters to the EU intend to grow their exports to the bloc, nearly a quarter (23%) are looking to either reduce their activity within the EU or have no activity at all in the next 12 months, following the ratification of the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement.

According to the results of the latest British Chambers of Commerce survey, together with moneycorp, two-thirds of UK businesses are looking to increase activity in the domestic market.

Fieldwork for the survey, which received 1,024 responses from UK firms overall, 466 who were exporters to the EU, was undertaken between 18 and 31 January 2021.

For UK exporters towards the EU market, 44% said they plan to increase activity in the EU export market, 27% will consolidate instead of grow, 10% plan to have no activity within the EU, and 13% will decrease activity.

Overall, almost two-thirds (60%) of UK firms intend to increase activity in the domestic market. 28% said they'll consolidate rather than grow, 2% said they have no plans to be active in the UK market, and 5% will decrease activity.

One-fifth (21%) of firms say currency risk is much more of a concern than two years ago. Manufacturers (28%) are more likely to report concerns.

Domestic market

Overall, almost two-thirds (60%) of UK firms intend to increase domestic activity over the next twelve months. 28% said they'll consolidate rather than grow, 2% said other product plans to be active within their home market, and 5% will decrease activity.

UK manufacturers (68%) and B2B service sectors firms (63%) – such as finance, legal, or marketing firms – may expect to increase domestic activity.

B2C firms – such as hospitality, catering, and retail- are less likely to expect to grow in the UK market, with just over half (53%) of these firms likely to increase activity.30% planned to consolidate instead of grow and just under a tenth (9%) planned to decrease activity.

EU market

Under half (44%) of current UK exporters to the EU either have concrete plans for growth or intend to grow without concrete plans. 27% will consolidate instead of grow.

By contrast, nearly a quarter (23%) of UK exporters to the EU either don't have any plans for activity within the EU export market (10%) or intend to decrease their activity within the EU export market (13%) over the next twelve months.

This follows BCC research released on 11 February which discovered that 49% of exporters are facing difficulties adapting to changes in the trade of goods with the EU.

Non-EU market

For all exporters within the survey – those that currently export to the EU and/or rest of the world – 25% said they'd concrete plans for growth for non-EU export markets, 27% had intentions to grow, 17% would consolidate rather than grow, 19% had no active plans to be involved in non-EU export markets, and 4% would decrease presence.

Currency risk

When asked if foreign currency risk is more or less of a concern for their business than two years ago, one fifth (21%) of firms said hello was more of a concern. Only 7% said hello was less of a concern, 36% said it was the same concern as 2 yrs ago, and 27% said it was neither an issue now nor two years ago.

Respondents within the manufacturing sector (28%) were more prone to report increased concern.

When asked whether businesses were taking steps to manage currency risk, overall only 9% of respondents were. However, that percentage increased to 19% for manufacturers.

While 37% of firms that are not managing risk cited little if any currency exposure:

• 16% of respondents said the costs, fees, or premiums of monetary products were too high
• 14% of respondents asserted there was a lack of information on the kinds of products or strategies with which to manage the risk;
• 13% of respondents said they had contract restraints, e.g. with customers or suppliers which limited their ability to manage risk

According to research by moneycorp, many UK firms intend to consolidate or grow in non-UK export markets, yet GBP volatility remains high. Using the pound strengthening by over 20% over from the dollar since March 2021, and 8% from the euro, meaning that if businesses were exchanging GBP 100,000, this is a difference of USD 25,000 and EUR 9,000 respectively.