2021 Business Predictions: Kevin McGrath, Managing Partner and Head of economic Defence at Smith Partnership

It’s that time of year, when Business Link Magazine invites the region’s business leaders to provide up their predictions for that year ahead. 

It has become something of the tradition, given that we’ve been doing this now for over 30 years.

Here we speak to Kevin McGrath, Managing Partner and Head of economic Defence at Smith Partnership.

In normal with most business leaders I sat down in March last year and tore up the carefully crafted business plan we had created for 2021 which surprisingly contained no mention of the words such as “covid,” ”pandemic,” and “lockdown.” In the circumstances I am more than a little hesitant in giving my predictions for 2021.

Inevitably everything will depend on when we can finally get the virus under control and that is itself dependant on the roll out of the vaccination programme. The optimist within me would hope that by the spring, society will return to some form of normality but the realist accepts summer time is more likely.

When we do I think that the euphoria that will greet the lifting of restrictions is bound to have an immediate positive impact on the economy. People who have been stuck aware of nothing to do and nothing to spend their money on for months at a time are likely to go on a spending spree using the main beneficiaries being the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors.

The extent to which that can be sustained will be determined by the more lasting damage caused to the economy as a result of business failures and job losses which will themselves be dependent on how fast government starts to remove the financial support it's extended to business during the crisis

In the property sector at Smith Partnership we're planning for the conveyancing boom to continue at the end of the stamp duty holiday. Even though many have taken advantage of the stamp duty exemption many more have been hesitant to move because of the circumstances of the pandemic and concerns over job security.

So far as commercial property is concerned a lot will depend on the way the market adjusts to the move towards home working.

I suspect that business and financial services will be in high demand as businesses be prepared for the impact of the pandemic and adjust to the “new normal.”

One of the biggest challenges will be to make sure we continue to benefit from the gains we have made during the last twelve months. The pandemic has forced all of us to implement radical changes towards the way we work and embrace technology for the first time. Remote working has become the norm as well as the most traditional businesses show they can adapt.

Ultimately I remain optimistic for future years but then I am reminded of my company plan for 2021.